NFL - Washington @ New England (4:15 PM ET – FOX)

The Patriots are on one of the most amazing runs in NFL pointspread history

2007-10-29

The Patriots are on one of the most amazing runs in NFL pointspread history, having gone 7-0 SU & ATS to open the ’07 season. Could THIS week’s game vs. Washington be when it ends?

Matchup-wise, the possibility certainly exists, since the Redskins are the NFL’s best team in terms of pass defense, yielding just 5.2 PYA and the NFC’s best defense overall at 276.8 YPG. In addition, Joe Gibbs is 11-1 UNDER vs. versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=6 YPP, holding those opponents to just 17.7 PPG. New England, who faces Indianapolis next week, is a 16-point favorite and 20-6 ATS under Bill Belichick against teams yielding less than 17 PPG. However, that average winning margin is only 8.5 PPG. Washington owns a 4-0-1 ATS edge in the L5 h2h meetings.

Injuries have brought losses to a Washington squad that has the talent to excel. Young QB Jason Campbell has proven worthy of praise but has found life difficult behind a patchwork offensive line missing several key contributors. The defense carries some of the most potent young talent in the league and will present a daunting challenge for any QB out there today. A supreme effort will be needed against the best squad the game has seen in some time.

The Patriots: There remains little to be said that hasn’t been repeated in recent weeks. They dominate, they destroy, and they reign supreme. Nearly every facet of their game ranks among league leaders, but it will be the defense that proves fruitful in this match against Washington. As it sits, there is little reason to believe the Pats won’t continue their perfection (7-0 SU & ATS, 6-1 O/U thus far) and persist the assertion those old-time Fins should start watching the calendar.

Keys to the Game
No offensive line is more in tatters than Washington’s. Game by game starters fall, replacements get hurt and even some players that shouldn’t be playing have had to reenter due to all the injuries. This is far from the ideal situation to have to take on vaunted New England. On defense, the Redskins will provide at least from a statistical view, a real challenge. Give Bill Belichick a tremendous edge for in-game management as the Redskins coaches have made numerous poor decisions.

Trends
- The Redskins are 9-1 ATS as non-division road pooch off a win against team of SU win and cover.
- The Redskins are 4-0-1 ATS facing New England.
- The Patriots are 10-1 ATS after beating AFC East team by double digits.
- The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatFox Pick – Redskins plus points

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